Econometric models for scenario analysis of energy poverty

On average, 8 percent of the Italian households (about 2 million) have been classified as energy poor in the period 1997-2021. This estimate, based on the approach suggested by Faiella and Lavecchia (2015) and adopted by the Italian government in several official documents, uses microdata of the Household Budget Survey annually run by Istat. Data are released with a delay of 11 months, it is therefore possible to know the incidence of energy poverty at the same time of data release, but a predictive indicator is needed for policy design. It would be useful to have models to assess energy poverty diffusion in the current year (i.e. nowcasting) and a scenario analysis for the future dynamics. The project aims at set up such models, linking microeconometric behavioural models and multivariate time series analysis.