PhD : Urban sprawl and the cost of fire risk: an assessment by simulation and artificial intelligence

Come and Work for a 3 years Phd Position in Corsica ! Multidisciplinary research Open for master students in Geography or Economics or Applied Mathematics or environmental science or Couter Science.

The objective is to capitalize on a transdisciplinary simulation/artificial intelligence/economics approach already developed as part of a previous (FireCaster) program in order to study the impact of urban sprawl on the cost of fires. Urban sprawl increases the costs of fires, but can constitute a barrier to their progression. The thesis will endeavor to quantify these different impacts according to the scale and form taken by the sprawl.

The purpose of the thesis will be to study the impact of choices made in terms of land use on the importance of fire risk. The effects of urban sprawl have been the subject of abundant literature in urban economics since the 1990s. But the link between urban sprawl and fire risk does not appear central in this literature. However, episodes of endangerment and destruction of homes are increasing. When homes are not destroyed, their simple proximity to fire zones forces intervention forces to deploy means to protect human lives, contributing at least indirectly to the cost of fires.

The proximity of housing can have contradictory effects on the economic impact of a fire. On the one hand, inhabited areas are generally less rich in fuels, and can constitute a barrier against fire. On the other hand, they considerably increase the cost per hectare burned in the event of combustion.

In order to quantify these impacts, the doctoral student will rely on the simulation tools developed as part of the FireCaster program (see PhD of Frederic Allaire https://theses.fr/2021SORUS037). These tools, which revolve around the ForeFire fire simulator , make it possible to simulate costs associated with forest fires in Corsica. They also integrate an uncertainty quantification module based on drawings of calibrated sets of parameters as input to the simulation model. The very large number of simulations necessary for a fine mesh of the territory is carried out thanks to a simulation emulator using deep learning techniques in artificial intelligence. It is important to note that although most of these tools have already been developed and tested, they still need to be adapted to the context of urban sprawl. The technical feasibility of the subject is thus almost assured.

The assessment of the impact of urban sprawl on fire risk will have two dimensions: the first will concern the extent of urban sprawl, the second will concern the particular forms taken by this sprawl. The first dimension will be addressed by simply comparing the fire risk of sensitive urban and peri-urban areas with a counterfactual based on land use prior to urban sprawl. The second will have to integrate alternative scenarios concerning the urban forms taken by recent residential areas (compact, dispersed, fragmented, etc.)

Although the tools developed within the framework of FireCaster have been configured for the Corsican terrain, they are naturally transposable, and will allow the doctoral student to study contexts of urban sprawl concerning agglomerations of larger dimensions than island agglomerations.

The doctoral student will have to put the results of his simulations into perspective, so as to provide public decision-makers with information on the foreseeable consequences of future urban development projects on fire risk.

Director: Jean-Baptiste Filippi - CR CNRS UMR SPE (HDR)
filippi@univ-corse.fr
tel 04 95 45 01 58
 
Co- Director: Antoine Belgodere - MCF UMR LISA (non-HDR)
tel 04 95 45 00 38
belgodere_a@univ-corse.fr

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